Whereas tournament and hero predictions are firmly based on stats and it is easy to stay objective, the team and player predictions are often influenced by our own perceptions. We will try our best to remain impartial and pick our predictions based solely on statistics, but that is not necessarily the most effective approach. So for most categories, several viable options are going to be presented, from which you will be able to pick the one you feel is the best.
The top three killers in the current patch among the participating teams with 50%+ win rate are gpk~, 萧瑟 and Monet, but this excludes several notable players who have not participated in official games in 7.30. If we include all the games since the first DPC Major, the whole season, then SumaiL, Abed and Somnus丶M take the leading positions.
If we account for somewhat recent international performance of the teams, the choice is realistically between Ame and Abed, who are both below Somnus and Sumail in kill average, but who have statistically more successful teams. Additionally, NothingToSay should be mentioned. He missed a couple of tournaments and is theoretically a good pick as well.
For the “kills in a game” we are going to go with a reliable unknown and pick NothingToSay. He didn’t have time to rack up his average, but it is safe to assume he is going to have at least one of his iconic, snowbally games.
Statistically, the least deaths category should be between Nightfall, gpk~ and YS. Now, historically Virtus.Pro doesn’t do too well in the International and Quincy Crew is not one of the tournament favorites, so there is a reason to skip ahead to Abed, but we won’t. New Virtus.Pro and no crowd to distract this time around make for an almost online setting and this is a big boost to these online-only monsters.
The trio of MoonMeander, DuBu and SabeRLighT from Undying hold the leading assist positions in terms of stats, followed by N0tail, Saksa, Dy and y`. We are going to go with y`, since PSG.LGD are heavy favorites and winning teams typically have more assists, but perhaps OG are not to be underestimated, especially with Ceb coming back.
Most assists in a game, though, is a different category altogether. You theoretically need an explosive performance on a global hero who doesn’t take kills and has a lot of AoE abilities. And you need to combine it with an active and unpredictable player. It doesn’t hurt if he is on a teams that is expected to do well. Our pick is iceiceice.
For last hit average you need to look at predominantly 4-protetct-1 teams. Evil Geniuses can play 4p1, but their playstyle is incredibly diverse. PSG.LGD and other heavy tournament favorites are the same. Because of it, we are going to go with T1 and 23. T1 plays 4p1. They have the longest game average among the participating teams and they are most likely to be able to hold their ground against the best of the best, while sometimes struggling versus underdogs.
For the peak last hits we need a Naga Player who sometimes plays in a 4p1 environment. Arteezy is an obvious choice.
Most GPM in a game is now an Alchemist on a winning team. Pretty much no one plays Alchemist right now, but there is probably going to be at least one Alchemist game. It is most likely going to be either 萧瑟 or k1 , since they are the only ones to even touch the hero in the recent past. We are going to go K1, because it is rarely the tournament favorite who takes this category. In fact, most of the time it is an underestimated dark horse, who finds a way to squeeze in an Alchemist pick.
We are going to pick Ame for our average GPM, though and we feel this requires no elaboration.
Finally, the widest hero pool, the reverse-bulldog, if you will. In the absence of Kuroky, this one is really hard to guess. The recent developments in Tier 2 tournament meta include forced greedy position four and five supports. Quite frequently some leftover hero is given to a hard support, because the hero no longer fits as a core, so we feel like position five is going to be the wildest this time around. We also need a team that is likely to go deep in the tournament and will have some wonky strategies on top. Our pick is N0tail, who is also the second most diverse player in the history of Dota.
For the winner of the tournament, you can consult our tournament favorites blog post and we shall leave it at that.
When it comes to most kills in a game the “unreliable favorite” is probably the best way to go. A team that is exceptional, but inconsistent and might have some troubles actually closing a game against a theoretically weaker opponent and will be forced into a very long match they have a lead in, but can’t actually finish. We are going to go with Virtus.pro, who fit the description well.
For the average, we are going to go PSG.LGD, though. They are statistically one of the most bloodthirsty Tier 1 teams.
Team Secret is going to be our pick for the fewest deaths. In the absence of Nigma, Team Secret best describes a surgical, tactical team that has the potential to completely outdraft the opponent and make zero mistakes, methodically dismantling the opposition. Puppey and Heen are more than capable of creating such conditions.
Stats-wise OG is the highest assists average among the teams we expect to perform well. That said, both Undying and Fnatic are solid choices as well, if you believe they will hold their ground on the international stage. We believe that OG is going to give us at least one TI-winner worthy performance, if not more, so they are going to be our choice.
T1 is our pick to win the longest game. They have the longest game average and are among the unreliable favorites of the tournament, borderline dark horses, who can really struggle in a winning game, dragging it out.
Evil Geniuses is our shortest game winner, because they statistically have the lowest game duration in games they win. Not necessarily the most reliable metric, but the one we are going to go with.
Highest game length average is once again T1. These guys really take their time finishing matches.
Team Secret is once again going to be featured in our predictions, this time as the most versatile team. We don’t think that Team Secret is going to leave the tournament early and they also don’t look like a team that has one unbeatable strategy that everyone will have to play around and respect, akin to Io in TI9.
Finally, the fewest unique heroes picked. For some reason this category is often confused with “team that will be eliminated in groups”, but historically this is not accurate. Instead, it is usually a middle of the pack team that doesn’t necessarily have the widest hero pool, but who can force their strategies to work in some cases. Our pick is Quincy Crew, who have the smallest hero pool, but who we feel are experienced and composed enough to not panic and try and force some untrained strategies on the brink of elimination.
Do you agree or disagree with our assessment? Feel free to share your opinions in the comment section below and stay tuned for our fantasy guide.