Nikobaby pogchamp

I love the picture Kawaiisocks gave.
"Against the Odds" is worth to be watched.

I can confirm that this guide is 100% true I came from the future.

dang that picture is an OG throwback

First day quick thoughts (team power levels are highly subjective):

Team Secret, PSG.LGD, Team Liquid, TNC Predator, Keen Gaming and Chaos Esports play three series
Alliance, Mineski and Newbee have two series.
We choose from the first five teams.

Miracle is a no-brainer. Liquid Plays against Newbee and Chaos, who are both probably on the weaker side of the competition. They also have a tough match against Team Secret, so two good series and one average.

Second choice is between Ame, Nisha and Gabbi. First plays against Chaos, KG and TNC — two good and one even. Second plays against Alliance, Newbee and Team Liquid — unknown, good and even. Gabbi plays against KG, Mski and PSG.LGD — two good and one even. Depending on who you feel is going to win in the PSG.LGD vs TNC, go with either Gabbi or Ame.

Following the same logic, go with Armel or Maybe for your mid.

We are going to consider a risky position four Tims as one of our supports. Puppey, Eyyou and xNova are also definitely worth considering.

TNC might have three really long series — their averages are high and they don't hold the same advantage over KG and Mski as someone like Liquid or Secret might. So, Eyyou rises in value. Interestingly, Tims doesn't, since his position is a lot more performance-dependant.

We feel like Puppey will stomp over Newbee and there is a chance he will do the same against Alliance. So his value goes a little lower, since games are expected to be shorter.

xNova is probably going to have three long series as well. One is against TNC, which realistically can go either way. On top of it their playstyle is generally more farm-oriented because of Ame. Overall, xNova is probably the safest choice.

Our final lineup for day one (considering I am leaning towards PSG.LGD in LGD vs TNC):

Cores: Ameame and Miracle- — go for Gabbit instead of Ame if you believe in TNC
Mid: Maybe/Somnus — go for Armel if you believe in TNC
Supports: xNova, Eyyou — go for Tims instead of xNova if you believe in TNC

зверБ :-)

You don't really mention much about midlaners. I expected to read more about them.

MMMMMMM Mid pick best pick :)

The same logic applies to both cores and midlaners, since... midlaners are cores and the only reason they've switched the Offlaners category for Mids this time around is probably because all-star this year is going to be based off fantasy popularity or something along those lines =/

Нотейл если что не мидер и его нельзя выбрать!!!

Where do we see a player's average fantasy points going into TI?

And could you have your header pic be your picks?

Thanks!

Day Two Quick Thoughts:
We are picking from EG, Infamous, NaVi, NIP, OG, VG

In mid, at least stats-wise, Sumail outclasses Ori. After all, he is the greedy, flashy core for his team. BUT EG are looking somewhat shaky and have games against OG, RNG and VG tomorrow. Both EG and OG went 1-1 against Na'Vi, so the teams are probably somewhat evenly matched. RNG went 1-1 against Virtus.Pro so they will probably put up a fight. And VG straight up looks a lot better than EG.

On top of it, VG will play against VP, which should be close, Infamous, where Vici Gaming are heavy favorites and EG, where, as discussed previously, they have an edge.

Relative team performance is really important when picking mids, so we will go with Ori, though if you really believe in EG, Sumail is a viable option. Magical is also worth considering, but he is outclassed stats-wise vs. Sumail and is outclassed teamwise vs. Ori. Same goes for Topson.

Team Performance isn't as important for supports and it is actually better to pick teams that will probably have longer games. Fly and Sonneiko make a lot of sense stats-wise. Na'Vi is an unknown, but they should put up a fight against VP and NiP and there is a chance they will have problems against Infamous.

Paparazi is going to be one of our cores and it should be self-explanatory. Second core is a lot harder. Arteezy isn't particularly great stats-wise, since most kills on his team are done by Sumail. Crystallize is consistent, but doesn't really provide the fantasy "oomph" factor. Ace looked ok in his games, but they are going to have really even matches tomorrow. Ana is in the same boat.

If you are looking for consistency, go with Crystallize. Decent stats, decent matchups, overall a decent choice. If, however, you are not going to be satisfied with a safe, "average" choice, choose between Ana and Ace. Probably Ana, but it really depends on your beliefs.

Our Day 2 lineup is going to be:

Cores: Paparazi, Ana — switch Ana to Crystallize if you are risk averse
Mid: Ori — switch to Sumail if you believe that the EG first day curse is a thing and they will play CONSIDERABLY better tomorrow
Supports: Fly and Sonneiko, no real alternatives, at least stats-wise

thanks for your fantasy insights @KawaiiSocks!

Day three quick thoughts:
We are picking from Alliance, Chaos, Keen, Mineski, Newbee and Secret

Let's start with Mid once again. Stats-wise CCnC and Moon share the highest average fantasy score, with the "safe" choice of MidOne being significantly behind (still the third best choice, though). CCnC has games vs. Alliance, Keen Gaming and Chaos Esports. The latter two are at the bottom of the group, so they are probably the weaker teams, so he can really take off.

Moon is playing against PSG.LGD, Team Secret and Alliance. Ooph... Honestly... big Ooph.

MidOne has games vs. TNC, Mineski and PSG.LGD. All three series can go really long, so there is a good chance he scores high.

So we are choosing between MidOne and CCnC. Midone is a reliable, "boring" pick that can score well. CCnC is definitely a riskier pick, but hey, we can afford to take some risks.

Taiga and Pieliedie have the highest average out of all supports playing three series tomorrow. Both of them have decent competition, where the game can go late. That means they are both good choices, but so is Puppey, just because he is playing vs. TNC tomorrow and that series can be really, really, really long.

Taiga is also a position four support, so that can kinda mess up if his games aren't particularly great. [A] are playing Liquid, Mineski and Newbee, so it is really hard to predict, therefore we are going with a safer Puppey and Pieliedie.

Nisha is going to be one of our cores. He scores consistently well, his team hasn't lost yet and there is no reason not to pick him. He might be statistically below MiCKe and Yawar, but not significantly enough to risk it with both of them. Yawar also has easier competition, compared to Micke, so it's probably better to pick him. KG and Chaos might feed some extra kills to both him and CCnC.

So, our Day three lineup is:

Mid: MidOne or CCnC — honestly, just pick a better card of the two. Both can be good and will do at least something for you. Moon might, but there is a chance he scores close to nothing, given competition. We still lean towards CCnC, just because it is more fun.

Supports: Puppey and Pieliedie. If you really, really believe in [A] and them having good games tomorrow, switch Puppey for Taiga. We didn't believe in Tims day one, and we were wrong, so picking two pos5 might be a mistake, but we are sticking with our belief that stats don't lie.

Cores: Nisha and Yawar. Again, consider Micke, if you are an Alliance fan.

Day 2 update. Stayed faithful with OG and so much points lulw. feelgoodman. I'm just filling my roster up with psg.lgd and OG. ez bugattis.

Midone totally ruined my points today. Your CCNC pick was absolutely brilliant!
Any updates for day 4? I got indecisive now since there is a conflict of interest of VP vs EG and the form of VP looking quite unwell.
My absolute pick is RTZ and Fly but am unsure if Ramzes and Noone will perform well. Should I go with Paparazzi and Sumail instead?
There is also PPD with NIP but they are going home, so I can't decide. Should I put the second support as Solo or even Dy?
VP VG NIP and EG plays 2 series tmr but will there be any tie breakers?

Fucking Midone. secret just having fun this day, not really serious game after clean sheet 2 days

Day four quick thoughts:
Teams playing two series: EG, Fnatic, Infamous, NIP, RNG, VG, VP
Of those, teams that can mathematically get into a tiebreaker situation: pretty much everyone... damn... Tiebreakers are not guaranteed, however, so do keep it in mind.

Ok, let's try to at least attempt to unravel the ball for tomorrow.

SUPPORTS.

VG.Dy is statistically the best pick. VG have shown they are good, but not unbeatable and they are playing Na'Vi and OG tomorrow. Stats — good, game length — good, as they should put up a fight and it is unlikely to be stomp, tiebreaker chance — below average. They've played 6 series and are already ahead of Na'Vi pointswise, and Na'Vi played 7 series. VG most likely to finish 2nd or third in their group.

EG.Fly — 2nd best support who plays two series tomorrow statswise. So, stats — good, game length might be below average, tiebreaker probability — below average, since they are playing VP and NIP who are both underperforming. Most likely to be third seat in their group. Almost guaranteed, really, if not stats-wise, but definitely meme-wise.

RNG.Ah fu, Infamous.Stinger, Fnatic supports and VP.Solo are ~average/below average stats-wise, but are most likely to get into some tiebreakers.

Realistically, you should probably go with VG.Dy as one of your "stable" scorers. He won't do something crazy on the back of some crazy four-way tiebreaker, but he will likely score good for you.

Second is up in the air. You should probably go for EG.Fly if you are really risk averse, for a second "stable" scorer with some chance of tiebreaker. Or for RNG.Ah fu / Infamous.Stinger / VP.Solo for slightly worse stats, but higher chance of extra points from tiebreakers, if you want to gamble some. Our picks are going to be VG.Dy and VP.Solo — a nice mix of statistical nerdiness and "crazy fun." RNG.Ah fu is also worth considering, since he is better than Solo in terms of stats, but somehow we believe that VP is the team that is most likely to claw their way into the upper bracket.

MIDS.

Sumail and Ori are both "boring" picks. If you are already in a good position, just pick one of them. Sumail has much easier games tomorrow, so, yeah, probably go Sumail if you don't want to risk.

If you really need to do some catching up, however, you need something crazy to pay off. Infamous.Chris Luck scored the most on the second day of the group stage out of all players and he has two decent games. Fnatic.Abed is better on average in terms of stats, but has slightly worse games, since he plays vs. VP, compared to NIP by Infamous. (They both also play RNG).

Overall, we feel boring on this one, so "go Sumail!"

CORES.

Go Paparazi for your stable scorer. I mean, it's Big Papa, the best mid in the world and all that (cute little trivia: he is 1v1 champion from DAC2017 and DAC2018, beating Miracle, Sumail and everyone else).

If you want to double down on boring and stable, go with Arteezy as your second pick.

If you don't want boring, RNG.Monet, VP.Ramzes and Fnatic.Jabz are all decent scorers stats-wise and can go to tiebreakers on top of playing two guaranteed bo2 series.

Our picks for Day 4:

Mid: Sumail
Supports: VG.Dy and VP.Solo/RNG.Ah Fu/EG.Fly
Cores: VG.Paparazi and VP.Ramzes/EG.Arteezy

Go for EG if you feel risk averse or for VP, if you want to tickle your nerves. Go for RNG.Ah fu as a support if you want to tickle your nerves in a more calculated fashion.

Translate to russian:
День четвертый, быстро поразмыслим:
Команады, играющие две серии: EG, Fnatic, Infamous, NIP, VG, VP
Из них команды, которые математически могут попасть в тай-брейк ситуацию: скорее всего все...Тай-бреки не гарантированы, но держите это в уме.

Ладно, давайте хотя бы попробуем распутать этот клубок на завтра.

САППОРТЫ.

VG.Dy это статистически лучший выбор. VG показывают, что они хороши, но не являются непобедимыми, и они играют против Na'Vi и OG завтра. Статы - хорошие, длина игры - хорошая, они должны оказать сопротивление и быть крайне невезучими, чтобы быть раздавленными. Шанс на тай-брейк - ниже среднего. Они уже сыграли 6 серий и обошли Na'Vi по очкам, и Na'Vi сыграли 7 серий. VG скорее всего завершат групповую стадию 2-ми или 3-ми в их группе.

EG.Fly - 2-ой лучший суппорт, кто играет 2 серии завтра по статистике. Поэтому, статы - хорошие, длина игры может быть ниже среднего, вероятность тай-брейка - ниже среднего, с учетом того, что они играют против VP и NIP, которые обе показывают результаты хуже обычного. Вероятнее всего займут третье место в группе, почти гарантировано, если не по статистике, то из-за мемтистике (попытка перевода игры слов)

RNG.Ah.fu, Imfamous.Stinger, Fnatic саппорты и VP.Solo - это приблизительно средние/ниже среднего по статам игроки, но имеющие наибольший шанс попасть в Тай-брейки.

В действительности, вы наверное должны взять VG.Dy как одного из ваших "стабильных" лучших игроков. Он не будет делать что-то сумасшедшее в сравнении с 4-мя тай-брекерами, но он скорее всего наберет много очков для вас.

Второй на очереди. Вам наверное стоит взять EG.Fly, если вы против рисков. Он второй игрок, стабильно набирающий очки с шансом на тай-брейк. Или возьмите RNG.Ah fu / Infamous.Stinger / VP.Solo со статами слегка хуже, но выше шансом на дополнительные очки с тай-бреков, если вы хотите немного азарта. Наш выбор падает на VG.Dy и VP.Solo - неплохой микс статистического занудства и "сумасшедшего веселья". RNG.Ah fu это также стоящий выбор, так как он лучше чем Solo с точки зрения статистики, но почему-то мы верим, что VP это команда, которая более вероятно прорубит себе путь в верхнюю сетку.

МИДДЕРЫ.

Sumail или Ori это "скучный" выбор. Если вы уже в хорошем положении, то просто выберите одного из них. У Sumail'а завтра гораздо проще игры, так что, пожалуй берите его, если не хотите рисковать.

Если вам сильно надо наверстать очки, как бы то не было, нужно что-то сумасшедшее, чтобы покрыть сполна. Удача Infamous.Chris помогла ему набрать больше всего очков во второй день групповой стадии и у него два достойных соперника впереди. Fnatic.Abed лучше в среднем по статам, но имеет чуть хуже игры, учитывая, что он играет против VP, в противовес NIP против Infamous. (Оба играют против RNG).

В общем, это начинает становится скучным, так что "Вперед, Sumail!"

КОРЫ

Возьмите Paparazi как стабильного игрока. Я имею ввиду, это Большой Папочка, лучший мидер в мире и тому подобное (маленькое примечание: он победитель 1vs1 турнира с DAC2017 и DAC2018, обыграл Miracle'а, Sumail'а и всех остальных)

Если вы хотите удвоить скуку и стабильность, идите за Arteezy, беря его вторым кором.

Если не ходите скучать, RNG.Monet, VP.Ramzes и Fnatic.Jabs - все они достойно набирают очки, имеют хорошую статистику и могут попасть в тай-брейки, поверх того, что играют 2-е гарантированные БО2 серии.

Наш выбор на 4-ый день:

Мид: Sumail
Саппорты: VG.Dy and VP.Solo/RNG.Ah Fu/EG.Fly
Коры: VG.Paparazi and VP.Ramzes/EG.Arteezy

Следуйте за EG, если чувствуете, что риск не нужен или за VP, если желаете пощекотать нервы. Выбирайте RNG.Ah fu как саппорта, если вы хотите пощекотать свои нервишки более рассчитанным видом.

Day 5 , Will do a combined team between TNC and VG, why? because TNC has the longest games by far in this tournament. The longer the games the more points we get.

Maxim amount of points
Cores: Paparazi, Gabbi
Mid:ORI
SUPPORTS:TIMS,DY

Safe amount of points:
Cores:Paparazi,AME
Mid:Somnus aka Maybe
Supports:DY,xNova

Main Event Day One Quick Thoughts:

We are picking from TNC, VP, PSG.LGD and Vici Gaming, since they are playing a bo3.

MID:

Somnus/Maybe is a clear leader in this category. Not only does he have the second highest average score of all mid players, but he also has an arguably easier matchup vs. Virtus.Pro. The relative power levels between the teams in different groups will remain unknown until after the first series of matches, but VP does look subjectively weaker than they did last year and, perhaps more importantly, weaker than PSG.LGD.

You could argue for Armel/Ori simply because their series are more evenly matched (=longer games) and both of them are good in terms of stats, but so far the game length didn’t necessarily directly correlate with the amount of fantasy points for core players. Despite having an average game length of ~50 minutes on TNC, compared to ~38 minutes on PSG.LGD, the average amount of fantasy points earned by Somnus/Maybe is 1.3 points higher than Armel.

CORE:

Paparazi and Gabbi are the two highest scoring cores in the games tomorrow, but they are playing against each other, so that might be a bit of a problem. Ame is only 0.8 points behind them and should probably be one of your guaranteed choices.

Second choice should really depend on who you believe is going to win in VG vs. TNC. Vici Gaming does look like a stronger team to us, but upsets do happen. We are still going with Paparazi, since stats-wise they are a better team with higher KDA and overall winrate.

SUPPORTS:

VG.Dy all the way. No matter what happens, he scores incredibly well in his games and he is also playing against TNC, who have the highest game average of all teams. It is probably the safest pick for Day 1 of the main event.

Second support is a bit harder. Tims is statistically the second best choice and the man is a beast of a player. Third best choice is LGD.xNova and he is 1.1 points behind on average.

It would be easy to simply tell you to go for Tims, but with position four supports we really need to take the matchup into account and, as discussed previously, we lean towards Vici Gaming.

Tims average for the games they lose in is 15.46. It is 18.39 overall and 20.67 when TNC wins. xNova scores 17.25 on average. He also scores 20.17 when they lose, but PSG.LGD only lost three times so it is hardly significant data. Overall, as you can see, it is important for position four supports to take off and be on a winning team to outperform position five supports.

Since only two best games of a bo3 count for fantasy, there are three different expected outcomes for Tims: 30.92 if they lose two games in a row, 36.13 if they manage to win one game, but still lose the series and 41.34 if they win the series.

xNova, as a position five support, is expected to score 34.5 regardless of the outcome, at least in our super-simple (and statistically somewhat stupid) model.

While writing this I was trying to construct an argument for xNova and how it is a better choice, but after doing my weird calculations and realising that TNC taking a game off VG is definitely not impossible, I am finally convinced that Tims is worth the risk.

Lineup for Day 1 of the Main Event:

Paparazi, Ame, Somnus, Dy and Tims

new post about bracket prediction??

Waiting for bracket

Day 2 tips?

Main Event Day Two Quick Thoughts:

As the tournament progress these kinda get easier, so for the first time quick thoughts are actually going to be quick)

SUPPORTS:

Pieliedie would be close to a must. Despite having one of the toughest teams to play against tomorrow, we still have full faith in our position five support fantasy meta. Though there is a chance OG will seal the deal too fast, so there are other options.

Fly is a good, consistent pick that has one of the highest averages. Their match against Team Secret can be a stomp, but we have more faith in EG than we do in Newbee to put up a long, grueling fight, or, possibly, even win the game. For the same reasons, Puppey can be a decent pick as well.

There is an argument to be made about TNC supports, namely Eyyou. He outscores Puppey in terms of averages and is not as matchup-dependant as Tims. It might be a bit too risky to go for Tims in TNC vs Liquid scenario, though TNC might actually look better. Either way it is going to be a long series.

So, Pieliedie if you believe in Newbee and don't think they are going to be stomped by OG.
Eyyou, if you think Liquid and TNC are matched at least evenly.
Tims, if you think TNC looks better than Liquid.
Fly and Puppey if you are boring and just want consistent picks.

We are going with Eyyou and Fly. As always, mix of fun and consistency that is yet to fail us.

MID

Sumail is a great pick if you consider EG to be on par or not significantly behind Team Secret.
Armel, if you believe in the power of TNC Predator.
Topson, if you think Newbee will put up enough of a fight for the series to actually last more than two games, 30 minutes each. (OG has one of the statistically lowest game length averages)

We will go with Sumail.

CORES

Yawar is a top scoring core, but the matchup will probably spoil his average. Nisha turned out to be a consistent winner and a pretty terrible scorer, same with Ana. Miracle... was disappointing fantasy-wise this year.

We are going to go with Gabbi as one of our picks. TNC and Liquid should battle it out for long enough so that even in losses, he scores at least something. Second pick should really depend on what you personally believe in.

Go Yawar for great points if they manage to fight OG.
Go Ana if you think he will actually have to break a sweat when playing against Newbee.
Go Ramzes if you want boring and consistent.
Go Miracle if you still believe.

Gabbi is a bit of an unknown, so I will consider him our "crazy fun" pick that can pay off greatly or do close to nothing. Therefore I will get Ramzes for simple, consistent scoring.

Final Lineup for Day 2 of the main event:

Ramzes, Gabbi, Sumail, Eyyou, Fly

My lineup for Day 3 http://prntscr.com/ovr78z
Day 2, was a disaster for me, I thought that TNC will make again some long games so I went full-on TNC - Liquid and I got screwed up.

@BIG Reformed Weeb

we got same lineup :)

Only difference is I put ame instead of ana cuz OG looking super good and ending games fast.

Main Event Day Four Quick Thoughts:

This one is really weird, since you WILL have to bet on a team to win in the RNG vs. Liquid matchup to go for the most points.

It is possible to make a case for going with EG, since their players tend to do really well in terms of fantasy, but it is still going to be a far cry from what you would get from having a whole extra series.

The only one you could realistically go for is Sumail—he is the top scoring mid, while mids for Liquid and RNG are almost at the very bottom. So our advice would be to hedge a little with Sumail if you are in a good position and then pick whichever team you think is going to win in the RNG vs. Liquid as the rest of your roster.

Main Event Day Five Quick Thoughts:

The big question remains: is it going to be Secret or Vici Gaming who will play two series tomorrow. We can't know the answer to it, but we can tell you with certainty that Miracle finally looks like a player that can be used to hedge some fantasy points, despite playing only one series. He might and probably will outscore whatever offlaner will play two series.

Nothing for the grand final?

@reprobate;

it's pretty simple for the final day. pick one between liquid or lgd cuz they will play more games. you can pick one team which you believe will win and if they win you'll get alot of points but if they lose you'll get just a small amount.

or there is middle - pick 3 players from liquid and 2 players from lgd. (or vice versa)

my lineup is - miracle, ame, somnus, xnova, kuroky.

but i'm still thinking about going full liquid or lgd. (just without offlaner cuz they score lowest imho)